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Monte Carlo Commute Time Simulator (Chart.js - Stable, Cleaned)

Monte Carlo Commute Time Simulator

Problem Context

The Problem: Calculate the time it takes to commute from home to the office.

We are trying to answer:

  • How much time do I need to allow in order to have 75% confidence that I will arrive on time?
  • How much time should I allow in order to have 99.5% confidence that I will arrive on time (on days that start with an important meeting)?

The Situation:

  • Drive 2 miles on a highway (Segment 1): 90% probability of averaging 65 MPH, 10% probability of averaging 20 MPH due to a traffic jam.
  • Intersection: Encounter a traffic light that is red for 90 seconds and green for 30 seconds.
  • Travel 2 more miles on a surface street (Segment 2): 70% probability of averaging 30 MPH, 10% probability of 20 MPH, 10% probability of 40 MPH, and 10% probability of a traffic jam taking 30 minutes for this segment.
For demonstration purposes only.

Simulation Parameters

Highway Segment (2 miles)
Traffic Light
Surface Street (2 miles)

Teaching Notes

This Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates:

  • How to model uncertainty in a commute using probability distributions
  • The importance of understanding tail events in risk management
  • The difference between planning for regular days (75% confidence) vs. critical days (99.5%)
  • How to identify which segment contributes most to the overall variability

Simulation Results

Run the simulation to see results
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